16/5/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from Flemington, Saturday, 9th. May, 2009.

Flemington
Track: Good
Rail: Out 11 metres
Penetrometer: 4.55

R1 $75,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1420 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Tollesprit
Days since last start: 8
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Mark Pegus
Trainer: Shane Fliedner

R2 $75,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Renaissance
Days since last start: 19
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Aaron Spiteri
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R3 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Ready To Lift
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1610
Result last start: 7-13
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Danny Brereton
Trainer: Gerald Ryan

R4 $75,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1420 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Glaneuse
Days since last start: 26
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 10th.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Michael O'Leary

R5 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1620 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Miss Badoura
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1610
Result last start: 3-13
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Leon Corstens

R6 $100,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2800 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Phaze Action
Days since last start: 11
Distance last start: 2100
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Bevan & Richard Laming

R7 $75,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1420 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Ravishing Reward
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 4-11
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Trainer: Tony Noonan

R8 $75,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Memorise
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 4-12
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: John Sadler

Comments:
Three of the beaten favourites, in R3, R7 and R8 all failed to run a place at their previous start. In R6 Phase Action jumped from 2100 metres to 2800 metres without success despite being solidly backed as $4.00 favourite. It's worth noting that Dwayne Dunn had a bad day on the favourites, as he was the jockey for three of the beaten favourites, in races 4, 6 and 8.

In R1 punters successfully took $3.10 on Tollesprit winning. It was an excellent training performance by Shane Fliedner with Tollesprit jumping up in distance after only eight days from 1100 metres to 1420 metres despite the poor statistical odds for doing this.

This edition of Punt to Win:
How to find winning horse racing bets at huge odds
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 9/5/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 2/5/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 25/4/2009
The Quick Pick Quinella horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 9/5/2009 and 2/5/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: Sydney Cup Day - 25/4/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 25/4/2009
Punt to Win index

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