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Punt to Win |
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16/5/2003 edition "It Can't Win Because of the Barrier" Wide barriers - the betting myth A wide barrier is often given as the reason why a horse has little chance in a race or used as an excuse to explain a poor run. This is generally not correct. Here is what racecaller Alan Thomas said before the third at the Gold Coast last Saturday: "I think he'll race well here, Port Call. He's down a bit in class. Sometimes form can be a little bit misleading. Have a look at his form. You see 13 out of 14 and 12 out of 13 and it does frighten you. But I can tell you the alleys he had and where he was in the run. You just have to forget he went round. He's got one alley today." Alan Thomas then went on to add that if you've found a consistent horse nine out of 10 times when it runs a bad race it is because of a wide barrier! In our opinion Alan Thomas has got it wrong. Barriers are generally not that relevant at all. When Port Call ran 12 out of 13 at its last start, beaten by nearly 10 lengths, it raced erratically and ran wide during the race. That has absolutely nothing to do with the barrier. In September last year the 6YO gelding also finished 13 out of 15 at Doomben, not from a wide barrier but from barrier one. It missed the start and raced erratically. Port Call being "down a bit in class" as Alan Thomas noted, is far more significant than the barrier. However, the gelding was not down just a "bit in class", but quite substantially. It was down in class from an Open handicap to a restricted race. Field strength was approximately eight kilos less - a substantial class drop. The 6YO gelding was also fitter as it was third up from a spell. Port Call also liked the tricky Gold Coast track and had three wins and three placings from eight starts. These are the most relevant factors to look at. If you're going to find good bets you must know what to look for. Blaming bad runs on wide barriers and expecting substantial improvement because of a supposed good barrier does not work. It is just too simplistic. The barrier is just one of many factors to be taken into account. Because, just like racecaller Alan Thomas, so many punters automatically dismiss horses with wide barriers it can give you the opportunity to get on some good bets at good value. Have a look at some of the winning barriers from Rosehill last Saturday:
To win at racing you must be different from the herd. Sure, take barriers into consideration. But don't refuse to back a horse just because it has a wide barrier. This edition of Punt to Win: You Need Top Odds It
is just about impossible to get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and the poor value tote horses to make up for
the big unders on the tote. Short
priced tote favourites Copyright ©1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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