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Punt to Win |
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15/8/2003 edition Handicapping and Betting Tips Penalising horses when handicapping A well known handicapping dictum is to never penalise a horse for what is has not had the opportunity of doing. We wonder how accurate that is. It certainly didn't work for punters who sent out 3YO filly Fashion Victim as $3.00 favourite in the second at Sandown over 1000 metres. Horses out of Rory's Jester, for whatever reason, are notoriously poor runners on rain affected going. Already proven and well performed on Good rated tracks, Fashion Victim was beaten by nearly nine lengths at her first start on the genuinely Slow rain affected track at Sandown Hillside. First up - beware short betting odds Fashion Victim was also first up since February. Any horse resuming from a spell is a greater betting risk than a hard, racefit horse. That's why short odds make for an added betting risk for these first up animals. Good 2YOs don't always return as good 3YOs. Similarly good 3YOs don't always return as good 4YOs. The worst betting odds of the day had to be Spark Of Life. While not first up, this 3YO gelding was having his first race for 42 days. He started at $1.45 favourite against a class field including the Magic Millions winner, Regimental Gal. We wanted to back Spark Of Life, but considered $5.00 value. We were never in the ballpark, and avoided a losing bet at crazy odds. This edition of Punt to Win: Back Tote Longshots?
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