15/8/2003 edition

Trifecta and First Four
Betting Tips

Nerrena $46.40 placegetter. That's what this 4YO gelding with a most undistiguished career of 11 starts paid on SuperTab when he finished second in a 0Mw race over 2100 metres at Eagle Farm.

On his three runs this time in you couldn't possibly have the gelding. In those three starts at the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast in maiden company over 1400 metres he was beaten by a combined total of 42 lengths.

However he did finish second - his only placing - over 1800 metres in a Gold Coast maiden in January this year. He followed that up with a 3YO Open over 2020 at Doomben where he was beaten by less than six lengths after being checked early in the race and running wide in the straight.

So on that the possibilities were there to include the gelding in your multiples betting. Especially as he was at monster odds and likely to be dismissed by most players of trifectas and first fours.

Could it just be possible that current form for horses running second, third and fourth is not as relevant as for horses winning races? Could it just be possible that there is a lot more randomness, compared to win betting, than is generally acknowledged about which horses will finish second, third and fourth in races and that you need to take this into account when betting trifectas and first fours?

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting tote favourites
Jockey watch - Michael Rodd
Betting tips - penalising horses, first up betting odds
Betting tips - trifectas and first fours
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Randwick, Sandown betting tips from the track
Money talks - Eagle Farm betting tips from the track
Money talks - Morphettville betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 8/8/2003
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

Back Tote Longshots?

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