15/6/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Monday, June 11

Brisbane Cup another wipeout

3200 metres handicaps are some of the worst betting races for punters in this country. There are many reasons for this. One important reason is that races over this distance are held very infrequently. That means it is just about impossible to line up the form.

Last Monday the $500,000 media hyped Brisbane Cup looked very much a trap race for punters. Was tearaway leader Maltese Beauty going to open up a 20 lengths lead over the field, turning the race into an even bigger raffle.

There were two horses, Citi Habit and Yippyio who were sent out as equal $3.00 favourites. The odds were way too short. Neither horse had a one in three chance of winning the race. There was not a two in three chance, two to one on (!), that one of those horses would win the race.

Star Covet is a seven year old gelding who had a very ordinary strike rate of only five wins and another 10 placings from 51 starts. His last win was in May 1998! He won the race by over four lengths and paid $94.60 on the Queensland tote.

Despite all the media hoo ha about the race, we decided not to even rate the race. It turned out to be the correct decision.

1000 metres races - expect the unexpected

These races are notorious for providing some crazy results. Some factors which increase the likelihood of a punting wipeout are:

1. Many lightly raced horses.
2. Plenty of runners resuming from a spell or a long break.

At Flemington in the 10 horse 2YO Open there were:
1. Three unraced horses.
2. Only one horse had three race starts.
3. Three horses resuming from a spell.

The winner Snappa Cane was first up and paid $23.80.

Know your horses

It has been well touted how two year old filly Palm Flyer is very small. Most punters didn't seem to bother about that last Monday at Warwick Farm. She rose significantly in the weights to 58kg. but punters were happy to take $1.80 about her. That means you need a 55% winning strike rate just to break even.

The race may have only been 1000 metres but weight does matter, despite a common punting myth promoted by media mugs that weight is irrelevant over that distance. Palm Flyer comfortably led, felt the weight and weakened right out of the race over the last 100 metres.

Talking about weight

Three year old filly Abeel Hostess bolted in her previous start by six lengths carrying 54.5kg. That was the most she had carried in any of her seven starts.

Three times a claiming apprentice had been used to reduce her weight. That tells you something.

At Warwick Farm she jumped to 57kg. and carried the weight as a good senior jockey, Justin Sheehan, took the ride. Abeel Hostess settled midfield, never got into the race and folded.

Pleasure Giver - outstanding

This six year old gelding's win last Monday at Eagle Farm in a restricted race carrying 62kg. was outstanding. However since September 1998 he had only won three races and they were all on rain affected tracks. At Eagle Farm the track was Fast.

Pleasure Giver's strike rate was nothing special either - only seven wins and 12 places from 44 starts. In the eight horse field his starting odds of $3.50 was hardly generous. Trying to guess whether horses will carry the grandstand and then taking short odds about them must put punters at a huge disadvantage.

Sad site

What was Iron Horse doing going around in a $25,000 restricted hurdle at Flemington on Monday? His jumping looked risky and he finished second.

He won the Group 1 Epsom Handicap in 1997 and a number of other black-type events. He has amassed well over one million dollars in prizemoney for connections.

Obviously no happy retirement for this horse in lush, green pastures.

Next: Punt to Win 8/6/2001
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