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15/2/2002 edition

Plunge Horses
Money Talks?

Each week we will feature tables showing just how successful the "smart money" was. To qualify a horse must have firmed 5% in the betting market. For example if a horse was backed in from $5.00 (4/1 or 20%) to $4.00 ( 3/1 or 25%) it will qualify. Odds calculator gives you tables.

The jockeys and trainers are also important. You may see some jockeys and trainers consistently bringing home plunges whereas others regularly fail to deliver.

Flemington, Saturday, 9th. February 2002

Horse, jockey
and trainer

Firmed from % Firm Finish Beaten margin
 
Our Jermyn Street 5.00 3.80 6.67 2/8 3.3 lengths
Kerrin McEvoy Tony McEvoy
 
Spirit Of The Nite 5.00 3.50 8.57 7/9 2.8 lengths
Brett Prebble Bart Cummings
 

The racing media has made a big noise about the first up "plunge" on five year old mare Spinning Hill in the 1000 metres Group1 Weight For Age Lightning Stakes.

Typical was a feature boldly headed "Bookies sent spinning" written by Tim Habel, in the Sunday Herald Sun, February 10, 2002. Here is part of what was written:

"Classy Sydney mare Spinning Hill landed a sizeable betting plunge in the $400,000 Lightning Stakes at Flemington yesterday...
Spinning Hill was backed from $21 to $11, with punters snaring more than $200,000 from the bookies' bags at Flemington...
A bet of $100,000 to $5000 with rails bookie Bill Graham triggered the big slice in odds."

Seriously. Is that a betting plunge? Spinning Hill only firmed 4.33% in the betting ring. With the figures given we're talking about $15,000 bet on the horse in the Flemington betting ring. Think about it. Just $15,000. That's not big betting money.

It takes considerably more money bet and risked to move a horse from $5.00 to $4.00 than what was bet on Spinning Hill. It was nothing more than a little specking at odds.

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