15/2/2002 edition

Value Betting Tips

Don't follow the herd

2. "THE SACK BOOK: OK we know he ran a close-up fourth to Falvelon in Hong Kong, but Century Kid has become a very costly horse to follow. Well supported again, but never really threatened. Wait until he returns to some winning form."

"Century Kid has become a very costly horse to follow." That seems to us racing media created myth. You either follow horses every start or sack them...

Not one smart punter we know follows a horse every start. You only follow a horse if you believe the odds are good about it, otherwise you leave the horse alone.

The aim of successful punters is to outsmart the market. Century Kid is a very classy horse. If punters ignore him in the betting, why follow the herd should the horse get out to silly odds? Why risk missing a win at bolters' odds and then jumping back on after the odds have bolted?

Of course, if you make an informed decision that the horse has lost it, that's another matter. But you don't say, "I'm waiting for the horse to show winning form, then I'll jump back on again."

3. "THE SACK BOOK: She is usually thereabouts, but one-paced mare Bellered cannot find the winning post."

No disputing that assessment of her, though she has managed three wins and five seconds from 21 starts. How many owners would love a horse that has finished in the first two nearly 40% of starts?

But what were punters doing taking only $7.00 about Bellered in a Mares Open? That was the real problem. Get $20.00 about her in a similar race and you might find that you're getting decent odds and she just might manage to find the winning post for once.

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Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites
These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with the top official bookmaker betting ring prices.

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