Horse Racing Weight Handicapping and Betting Odds

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Randwick - 8/1/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Daintree Road	59.5kg.	1	1600	$3.00	3/8
Caulfield - 8/1/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Koala Bear	59kg.	8	1400	$8.00	4/8
First Command	59kg.	11	1200	$2.80fav.	1/12
Randwick - 1/1/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
American Crew	60kg.	2	1400	$4.00	2/7
Tallow	59kg.	9	1400	$4.80	5/10
Border Rebel	60kg.	6	1100	$4.40	3/8
Flemington - 1/1/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Macedonian	59kg.	13	2800	$3.30fav.	9/16
Macknuckle	59kg.	10	2000	$8.00	2/13
Gold Coast - 1/1/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Five O'clock	59kg.	11	900	$6.00	3/12
Burdekin Blues	61kg.	2	900	$2.00fav.	5/14
Morphettville - 1/1/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Sandhill Prince	59kg.	5	1600	$11.00	5/8
Indeed I Am	59.5kg.	11	1600	$11.00	10/11
Randwick - 26/12/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Sincero	60.5kg.	4	1600	$1.45fav.	1/5
Flying Success	60kg.	8	1600	$3.20fav.	6/8
Morphettville - 26/12/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Ace Or Joka	59kg.	2	1250	$9.00	7/11
Randwick - 18/12/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Kossack	59kg.	6	2400	$3.80	7/7
Gigas	59.5kg.	10	1200	$9.00	8/10
Swift Alliance	60kg.	5	1200	$4.20fav.	1/15
Flemington - 18/12/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Brad Star	59kg.	4	2500	$6.00	8/10
Toorak Toff	59kg.	11	1000	$3.80fav.	5/12
Danzylum	59kg.	5	1400	$6.50	6/10
Doomben - 18/12/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Burdekin Blues	61kg.	11	1110	$6.50	2/16
Rosehill - 11/12/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Rock Kingdom	59.5kg.	1	2400	$6.50	2/9
Flemington - 11/12/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Jungle Ruler	59kg.	5	1200	$9.00	10/13
Eagle Farm - 11/12/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Our Lukas	59.5kg.	5	1600	$6.00	4/11
Rosehill - 4/12/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Title	59.5kg.	2	1300	$1.75fav.	2/10
Caulfield - 4/12/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Tampiko	59kg.	8	1800	$2.25fav.	3/11
Morphettville - 4/12/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Rockwood	60kg.	1	1400	$6.50	1/7

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