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14/12/2001 edition

Brisbane Bookmakers'
Betting Odds

Did the Brisbane bookies not want to lay a bet in their main race last week - the Group 3 Summer Stakes? The prices on offer were shocking.

Here are the starting prices with percentages:

Horse
Price
%
Clay Shaker
2.80
36.36
Zariz
4.00
25
Federal Agent
10.00
10
Prince Hakeem
12.00
8.33
Aggravation
13.00
7.69
Sensache
13.00
7.69
King Lotto
15.00
6.67
Treasure The Kwila
16.00
6.25
Golden Eye
21.00
4.76
Aflac
26.00
3.85
Amaizcay
26.00
3.85
Schumann
26.00
3.85
Alpine Express
31.00
3.23
Sea Breeze
31.00
3.23
Wishart
31.00
3.23
Citichy
61.00
1.64
Machtig Mihi Panis
61.00
1.64
Regulations
101.00
0.99

Starting Price odds total = 138.26%

With no major betting ring plunges there is no excuse for that being served up. What the bookies were doing was:

1. Putting up what the racing media calls "value odds" - around $10.00.
2. Relying upon punters' lack of knowledge about market percentages to take the odds on offer.

Take a throw of a dice. I won't give you 5/1 ($6.00) about any individual number from one to six coming. I won't take a slight edge and give you $5.80. I'll give you 13/4 ($4.20). That's effectively the market that was served up to punters in the main race at Doomben, the Group 3 Summer Stakes.

If that's the best you can do Brisbane bookmakers then what's the point of making a market?

For an understanding of market percentages see Odds Calculator.

Way under the odds

Talking about the Group 3 Summer Stakes at Doomben, how could punters possibly take $2.80 about Clay Shaker winning it? Did punters seriously believe the horse had a 36% winning chance?

The same goes for Zariz. First up over the 1200 metres, top weight of 57kg. and barrier 10. Punters apparently thought $4.00 was value. Zariz did not have a 25% winning chance.

In a big field like that, over the 1200 metres at Doomben, you can expect many hard luck stories. That has to be taken into account when looking at the prices you are prepared to accept. Zariz had no luck in the race - along with at least half a dozen other runners!

Next pages
Certain winnners
Tote plunge...hmm
Same old betting trap
Future winners at big odds
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Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites
These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with the top official bookmaker betting ring prices.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners recently?
If you did, see the minimum prices you should have received.
Make sure you do!

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Outside The Square 5.70 9.00 70% $330
Maguire 4.60 7.00 67% $240
Frisky Star 3.80 5.00 43% $120
Dimness 2.90 4.00 58% $110
Mighty Fine 2.90 4.00 38% $110
Latte 3.20 4.20 46% $100

Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Silent Assassin 28.00 43.80 $1580
Brodance 42.40 52.50 $1010
Diamond Head 14.90 18.90 $400

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