14/9/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Strategy

Form reversal - watch this trainer

On August 25, the Matthew Ellerton trained six year old gelding, Royal Voyage finished last - sixteenth, beaten by nearly 20 lengths, in Group 2 Weight for Age company at Sandown over 1400 metres. The track was rated Slow and he started at $31.00.

Well, what an amazing form reversal at Flemington last Saturday by Royal Voyage in a Listed Handicap over the same distance. He raced just off the speed and after being held up early in the straight finished strongly to win at odds of $21.00.

Horses beaten by 20 lengths don't usually come out and win their next start in their current campaign. When questioned by the stewards, the reason given of course, was that the horse didn't like the Slow track at Sandown and appreciated the firmer surface at Flemington where the track was rated Good.

Worth keeping Matthew Ellerton in mind as a trainer who can produce dramatic form reversals.

Big winners - they can be found

In that same Flemington race the field was so even there was only around two lengths separating the first nine horses. It doesn't take much for one of those unplaced horses to come out and win. That's where you have a chance of finding a winner from them at big odds next start.

Smart punters don't dismiss the form from bunched finishes like the racing media which usually puts it in the too hard basket, but search for the horses in that bunched finish who can improve next start. Maybe a better barrier, a significant jockey change, a little less weight, improved racefitness or just more luck in running will do the trick next start.

Shogun Lodge outstanding

What a brilliant win by this five year old gelding over the 1300 metres Group 2 Handicap at Rosehill last Saturday. He had top weight of 60kg., three kilos more than the next horse, and started off the track from barrier.

After settling well back, jockey Glen Boss decided to ride him for luck and instead of going round the field weaved a passage through the 15 horse field. With a very quick turn of foot, Shogun Lodge flew over the last 100 when he got an opening to win drawing away. His price? $10.00.

There were many runs of note and hard luck stories in the race.

Spinning Hill showed tote odds as low as $3.20 at the jump (she started at the very short odds of $3.80). She had barrier one and leading hoop Jim Cassidy. She settled midfield on the rails but as she was making ground in the straight ran into a dead end, being badly held up. Over the last 150 she ran on well and finished fourth.

With only three lengths separating the first 11 horses, again the opportunity is there for smart punters to search for the horses in that bunched finish who can improve next start.

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
Spring horses to follow
Trifectas - another winning betting strategy
Watch this jockey's rides and make money

Top Odds Are Important

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