14/9/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Strategy

First up no match

In a seven horse field at Rosehill last Saturday there was some support for the lightly raced, Gai Waterhouse trained Academe who resumed from a four months' spell.

This three year old gelding firmed to start at $3.80. He had one win and a second from two starts. Unfortunately for his backers he was a little slow to begin. But it didn't matter. He finished second, beaten nearly seven lengths by Grandiser, who led all the way. Grandiser improved many kilos on his impressive win in smart time in restricted company 13 days earlier. After the race the $2.60 looked very generous.

The big flop has to be the Malcolm Johnston trained Shags who resumed from a spell of nearly five months. On his unlucky third to Red Hannigan, in a 2YO Group 2 race on March 31, beaten by a length after being held up for a run, Shags looked a big chance. He was beaten by 11 lengths.

Another media hype horse?

The Secondmortgage was $1.80 in prepost markets for a 1700 metres Open Handicap at Flemington last Saturday. Nothing could have been more ridiculous.

Sure, this lightly raced Michael Moroney trained four year old gelding has been very impressive, winning three of his five races. Sure, he also won on Saturday, starting at a still very short $2.35.

But be very wary about continuing to take short odds about him. After all he was on the minimum of only 52kg. last Saturday. His win wasn't overly brilliant either. The fast finishing six year old mare, Market Price, was gaining on him with every stride. When you consider she had three wins from seven starts at the track, including a Group 2 win, and paid for the place (a finish in the first three), pretty close to what The Secondmortgage paid for the win, it makes you wonder.

Arrabeea - weight matters

This four year old mare had put in an impressive first up run on August 25 when she finished second behind the outstanding Nanny Maroon. On that day she only carried 53.5kg.

But at Rosehill last Saturday she had barrier 12 and also top weight in the Fillies and Mares Listed Handicap of 56kg. She started at the shortish price of $5.00 ($3.20 for SuperTab punters at the jump!).

Arrabeea settled well back in the field as is her custom. Rounding the home turn she was well back, seven wide and pushed even wider by La Rieuse. Arrabeea never got into the race and was beaten by five lengths. After the race, jockey Lenny Beasley reported that Arrabeea was never travelling well. Weight can have that affect.

However our members who choose to back horses at big odds from our Horse Watch Stable were cheering when La Rieuse ran home strongly to win at $26.00 and cause a major upset.

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
Spring horses to follow
Trifectas - another winning betting strategy
This horse is ready to win at odds
TAB place bets
Amazing form reversal - note the trainer
Betting strategy - how to select big winners
Outstanding win - and more wins to come
Watch this jockey's rides and make money

Top Odds Are Important

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