14/6/2002 edition

Flemington Racetrack

Eliminate races down the straight

The Victorian Racing Club's Flemington racetrack, home of the Melbourne Cup, does not provide fair racing. It is a biased track and races down the straight are seriously influenced by the barrier draw and on what side of the straight horses race.

Have a look at what happened in the $75,000 3YO Listed race over 1200 metres run down the Flemington straight last Saturday. There were 13 runners in the field. But was it possible to seriously bet on the race with any confidence?

If you correctly assessed that the Flemington track bias would significantly favour horses on the outside rail then Savage Attack, drawn barrier one, was at a major disadvantage.

We had a small stake on Raptor, who was resuming from a spell and was drawn the outside. On ratings figures the gelding looked a realistic chance at odds with the advantage of the better going. It didn't work out.

Savage Attack was solidly backed from $6.50 to start at $5.00.

Consider these factors:

1. If Savage Attack's trainer Mark Minervini decided it would be too much of a disadvantage to cross the track from barrier one, then your money was thrown away.

2. Not only does the gelding have to cover significantly more ground to cross to the other side of the track but the horses drawn the outside also get the plus of already being in the better ground without having to concede lengths to get there.

3. If the horse in barrier two decided to race on the inside, then Savage Attack may have had difficulty getting across the track, or lose even more ground in doing so.

As it was, all the horses crossed to the outside. They were spread across the track, seven wide from the outside rail.

Savage Attack covered plenty of extra ground and settled well back, one off from the outside rail. The gelding was held up around the 200 searching for a clear run but finished strongly to win.

$5.00 Savage Attack. No thanks. There were too many things that could have gone wrong. The bookies will happily offer $5.00 (20%) every race about a horse in Savage Attack's situation, knowing that there is considerably less than a 20% chance of winning.

For starters we suggest getting rid of races down the Flemington straight.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Flemington racetrack - eliminate races down the straight
Latest from Lindsay Park Stable
Brisbane Carnival tips
Follow these tipsters?
Simple betting system that can win big
Money talks - Randwick plunge horses
Money talks - Flemington and Eagle Farm plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 7/6/2002
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

Back Tote Longshots?

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