14/3/2003 edition

Northerly
Brilliant Australian Cup Win

What a brilliant win in the Australian Cup by Northerly, who was taken to the lead by jockey Patrick Payne, never looked in danger and went away to win by four lengths.

Why was Northerly allowed to get so far out of his ground nine days earlier at Caulfield in the Listed Victoria handicap run over 2020 metres? He never really looked like winning that day in the small field of six runners.

Here's what we believe is the answer.

The Victoria Handicap was only worth $100,000, not $1,250,000 like the Australian Cup. Northerly's main target was the Australian Cup. So you'd hardly put him under unnecessary pressure with 60kg. to take the lead in the Victoria Handicap. Let him sit back, finish the race off, without being put under undue stress, and if he wins, well and good, if not, nothing is lost, he's had a good hit out.

That is why it is very tricky betting during Carnival time. Many horses are not out to "bust a gut" to win lead up races, just get fitter for richer pickings later down the track.

That's not saying of course, that connections deliberately throw lead up races. Horses can be given every chance, but often ridden in a different manner, to the way they will be ridden when the race they have been set for arrives.

We saw that on Monday. There was no way Northerly, even from barrier seven of seven, was going to sit back in the field and let a leader dominate the Australian Cup.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Internet Betting Exchanges
Northerly's Australian Cup form reversal
Horseracing betting tips
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Randwick betting tips from the track
Money talks - Flemington betting tips from the track
Money talks - Doomben betting tips from the track
Money talks - Morphettville betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 7/3/2003
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

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