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14/1/2012 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for horse racing punters betting favourites in small horse racing fields on Saturday, 24th. December, 2011.

Canterbury: Track Heavy R1-R2, Slow R3-R7, Dead R8.

R1 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Rating 80. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Miss Marx
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.70
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: John O'Shea
Winner: Rosie's Reward
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.10
Jockey: Adam Hyeronimus
Trainer: Gerald Ryan

R2 $70,000 3YO. Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1250 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Whitlam
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.60
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: Soledad
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.40
Jockey: Sam Clipperton
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R4 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 85. Handicap.
Distance: 1900 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Winning Glory
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: David Payne

Sandown Hillside: Track Dead R1-R3, Good R4-R8.

R2 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Spirit Song
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.80
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: Aaron Purcell
Winner: Grenada Road
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

Here are the results for horse racing punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 17th. December, 2011.

Warwick Farm: Track Good.

R1 $70,000 3YO. Rating 71. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Burnout
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.60
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: Daymo
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.20
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Chris Waller

R2 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 80. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Flying Empress
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Chad Schofield
Trainer: Joseph Pride
Winner: Straight Albert
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Guy Walter

Flemington: Track Good.

R2 $70,000 3YO & 4YO. Rating 78. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Nicholls Court
Result: 7th.
Starting price: $3.90
Jockey: Jake Noonan
Trainer: John & Chris Ledger
Winner: Jugahlation
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.00
Jockey: Ben Melham
Trainer: David Brideoake & David Feek

R7 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: The Soldier
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Michael Walker
Trainer: Byron Cozamanis

This edition of Punt to Win:
Free winning horse racing betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Beat the Firming Tote Favourites horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 7/1/2012 & 31/12/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 24/12/2011 & 17/12/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
 Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
 Punt to Win 17/12/2011
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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