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14/1/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, January 8.

Rosehill: Track Good

R1 $55,000 3YO. Sc1. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Shinzig
Result: first
Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctuation: $1.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Chris Waller

R2 $55,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Doyenne
Result: third
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.50
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Hadaaf
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.20
Jockey: Justin Sheehan
Trainer: Tim Martin

R3 $55,000 3YO Fillies. Sc1. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Fiery Sunset
Result: first
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R4 $55,000 3YO and upward. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Yes Boss
Result: third
Starting price: $1.85
Top fluctuation: $1.90
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Desert Ransom
Starting price: $7.50
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.50
Jockey: Rod Quinn
Trainer: John Hawkes

R5 $55,000 3YO and upward. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Lucky Night
Result: second
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.10
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: Pat Farrell
Winner: Mukareena
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.20
Jockey: Dale Spriggs
Trainer: Barbara Joseph

R8 $55,000 3YO and upward. Sc2. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Havana Wind
Result: first
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

Caulfield: Track Dead

R1 $50,000 2YO. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Domesday
Result: first
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.85
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Darren Gauci
Trainer: John Hawkes

R2 $50,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Foreplay
Result: third
Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $1.60
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton
Winner: Wildly
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.10
Jockey: Jason Benbow
Trainer: Rick Hore-Lacy

R3 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1700 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Sky Love
Result: second
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.50
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Winner: Cool Trent
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.10
Jockey: Ryan Moloney
Trainer: Robert Smerdonr

R4 $100,000 Group 3. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Super Elegant
Result: first
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Kelvin Sanderson
Trainer: Tony Vasil

Victoria Park: Track Good

R1 $22,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Barsha
Result: first
Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $1.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Aaron Spiteri
Trainer: Tony McEvoy

R3 $24,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Loutonne
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.80
Jockey: Wayne Kerford
Trainer: Dennis McMahon
Winner: Sparkling Now
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Jason Holder
Trainer: Darryl Hewitt

R4 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs2ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Grace And Power
Result: first
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Scott Leckey
Trainer: David Balfour

This edition of Punt to Win:
Gold Coast Magic Millions Day - the hard betting facts
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track - Rosehill and Caulfield
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 7/1/2005
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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