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13/12/2008
edition
Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields
There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about
favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on
a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne,
Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details
of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example
if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer
odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than
they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate
on favourites in small fields? And so on.
Here are the results from Saturday, 22nd. November.
Randwick: Track Dead
R2 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Swift Alliance
Result: second
Starting price: $1.65
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Youthful Jack
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.50
Jockey: Jamie Quinnell
Trainer: Allan Denham
R3 $70,000 3YO and upward. Rst81. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Emperator
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Peter Wells
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson
Winner: Afghani
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Jack Denham
R6 $70,000 3YO and upward. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Five Ways
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.50
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Mr Incredible
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.10
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Guy Walter
Sandown Lakeside: Track Slow
R1 $60,000 3YO Fillies. Rst72. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Take All Of Me
Result: sixth
Starting price: $3.50
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Bruce & Jean Purcell
Winner: Zavana
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Hayes
R2 $60,000 3YO. Rst72. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Gobrom
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.30
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: John Moloney
Winner: Galloping Hill
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.70
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: Terry & Karina O'Sullivan
R3 $60,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Rst82. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Flying Ruby
Result: first
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Peter Mertens
Trainer: John Moloney
R5 $60,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Lord Monty
Result: second
Starting price: $4.00
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: Itsamonty
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.70
Jockey: Dean Holland
Trainer: Dean Lawson
R8 $60,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Whitehaven Girl
Result: second
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Ray Cleaver
Winner: Till Time
Starting price: $41.00
Top fluctuation: $41.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $34.20
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Trainer: Ross Gawley
Cheltenham: Track Dead
R1 $30,000 2YO. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Be That As It May
Result: second
Starting price: $1.80
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: Believe In More
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $9.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.10
Jockey: Dom Tourneur
Trainer: John Hyam
R2 $25,500 Rst91. Handicap.
Distance: 1462 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Miss Razzle Dazzle
Result: third
Starting price: $2.90
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Kylie Huxtable
Winner: Amici Forever
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.60
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: Jon O'Connor
R4 $25,500 Rst91. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Brinkley Boy
Result: third
Starting price: $2.80
Jockey: Dom Tourneur
Trainer: David Aldridge
Winner: Gilded Boots
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.90
Jockey: Ben Hoppo
Trainer: Stuart Gower
This edition of Punt to Win:
There's a winner in every horse race
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 6/12/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 29/11/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 22/11/2008
The Wide Barrier horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 6/12/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/11/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/11/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 22/11/2008
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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