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13/8/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, August 6.

Randwick: Track Good

R4 $55,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Gallieni
Result: third
Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctuation: $1.70
Jockey: Jeff Penza
Trainer: Gerald Ryan
Winner: For Valour
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.30
Jockey: Kylie O'Hara
Trainer: Mitchell Hudson

Caulfield: Track Heavy

R1 $50,000 3YO Colts & Geldings. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Line Account
Result: third
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Mick Price
Winner: The Rhine
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.50
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: John Hawkes

R6 $100,000 Group 3. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Super Elegant
Result: second
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.90
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Tony Vasil
Winner: Regal Roller
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.30
Jockey: Mark Flaherty
Trainer: Clinton McDonald

Morphettville: Track Dead

R2 $20,000 Steeple. Handicap.
Distance: 3600 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Sinabhuil
Result: first
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: B Molloy
Trainer: Terry O'Sullivan

This edition of Punt to Win:
Make money betting trifectas
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch - future winners
The Consistent Winners Horse Racing Betting System
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for popular winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Randwick and Caulfield
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
 Punt to Win 6/8/2005
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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