13/6/2003 edition

Top Fluctuation Bets

Who benefits - bookmaker or punter?

Official top fluctuation bookmaker betting ring odds are a service given by some bookmakers to punters. The apparent disadvantage of course is that the bets have to be placed before the betting opens for that race. But is that such a disadvantage?

One of the arguments is that top fluctuation betting is a service punters give to bookmakers because punters have to make their bets before the betting opens.

Well, you can hardly expect to walk up to a bookmaker 15 minutes after the betting has opened and ask for top fluctuation about a horse that has firmed from $6.00 to $4.00.

Obviously a large punter would not set up a betting plunge on a horse by placing top fluctiuation bets on it before the race. Though the punter could of course place some top fluctuation bets on other horses in the race to confuse things!

But for your average punter who can bet as little as $50 from July 1 this year, top fluctuation betting gives them a tremendous advantage compared to placing every bet on the tote. It also means they can, if they wish, free up their Saturday afternoons to do other things.

Just look at the major difference in odds that top fluctuation bettors got in Melbourne and Sydney last Saturday compared to some tote punters.

Star Of Sequalo
TF: $6.50
Tote: $5.20

Patezza
TF: $6.00
Tote: $4.10

Youth
TF: $5.50
Tote: $4.00

Hit The Spot
TF: $5.00
Tote: $4.30

Another argument is that top fluctuation is always beatable at the track.

Sometimes not even one bookmaker at the track offers higher odds. Sure, at times you might be fortunate or skillful enough to beat the top fluctuation at the track. I have done it regularly. But it also means putting in a lot of time and nervous energy. There is also nothing worse than getting your bet on and then finding the betting takes a different course and your horse actually eases to better odds.

It is also not possible to go to the racetrack and get decent odds on races from the other three states from the weak interstate betting rings. When you go to the track, unless you bet top fluctuation with a bookmaker, your betting will have to be confined to your home state track only.

Here are some guidelines for making the most of top fluctuation betting:

1. Betting should be restricted to horses well in the market.

2. Longshots, except in small fields, are usually better on the tote.

3. It is essential that you are able to give minimum odds with your top fluctuation bet otherwise you can be locked into a terrible value bet.

4. You should be able to place a top fluctuation bet as close to the start of betting for the race as possible.

5. If you are worried about showing your hand, and unless you are betting in thousands that is pretty irrelevant, an intelligent punter can of course add some bogus top fluctuation bets - good bets at minimum odds you don't expect to get, to confuse the issue.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Top fluctuation bets - you benefit
All-up bets and value
Betting tips - weight, distance, lightly raced horses
Betting favourites in small fields
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Randwick, Flemington betting tips from the track
Money talks - Eagle Farm betting tips from the track
Money talks - Cheltenham betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 6/6/2003
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