13/4/2001 edition

More Punt to Win Tips

This horse should have won the Golden Slipper

Royal Courtship, put in an absolutely outstanding run in Saturday's $2,500,000 Golden Slipper Stakes for two year olds. He offered value at $6.00 and was backed in on track to $5.00.

He was inconvenienced on jumping away and settled midfield, wide. He lost his running and was severely checked at the 1000. The jockey responsible, Patrick Payne, who was on Spectatorial, was suspended.

Then, making the 1000 metres turn Newquay ran out hampering Royal Courtship. At the 700 Royal Courtship was again badly checked. He was also forced eight wide around the home turn. To top it off he was inconvenienced near the 100. Despite all that he finished sixth, beaten by under three lengths.

This bad luck has cost him many lengths. There is little doubt if he had a half decent run he would have won, and won well. Yes, Royal Courtship was one of our selections as was Dandify who we write up below. When such horrendous luck or unbelievable form reversals hit your selections it is important not to panic. You just keep plugging away, knowing what you are doing has worked long term and that your luck will change.

Form reversals

Offguard with a top barrier, one, started at $26.00 and dropped right out, finishing second last, beaten by 15 lengths in the Group 2 Phar Lap Stakes at Rosehill on March 24.

Next start, at the same track, two weeks later over 2000 metres and from a horror barrier, 16, in similar company, he worked hard early, settled on the pace, even led by a couple of lengths early in the straight and fought it right out to finish a fine third. He started at $81.00. How do you work it out?

Dandify, totally inexplicable

Talking of form reversals how do you explain Dandify's in the three year old fillies Group 1 Australia Stakes last Saturday at Rosehill over 2000 metres? The money was certainly there as she was heavily supported in the betting ring from $6.00 to $4.60.

Dandify, had good form at the Rosehill track with two wins from five starts. In September last year against the colts at Rosehill she finished an unlucky second in the 1900 metres Group 2 Gloaming Stakes.

She had four strong runs this campaign. At her previous start, two weeks earlier, she won the Group 2 Moonee Valley Oaks over 2040 metres by six lengths from Tanith. Admittedly the Victorian form may be a bit suspect.

Tanith ran in the Australia Stakes and was again beaten by six lengths. But not by Dandify, who after a comfortable run in the lead, was gone by the home turn and finished fifteenth, beaten by 20 lengths.

A post-race vet's examination revealed no abnormality which rules out the possibility of her jarring up on the fast track. A swab sample was taken.

Prior to Saturday's disaster she had raced 15 times. She had once been beaten by nearly six lengths. Her next worst defeat was by three lengths. Intuition tells you something must have been seriously amiss.

Top horse training feat

Here is an outstanding training feat by John Hawkes. Keep a note for when he tries this again with a horse.

On March 31, two year old colt Gladiators was beaten by three lengths in a 2YO Open at Eagle Farm over 1200 metres. He backed up one week later at Doomben, carried 1.5kg. more weight at 56kg. and went straight up to 1650 metres. He won. How often does that happen?

Next: Punt to Win 6/4/2001

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