13/4/2001 edition

More Punt to Win Tips

Three weeks ago in Punt to Win we wrote:

"Universal Prince - what's so special? Yet Universal Prince was then sent around as $1.80 favourite in the Rosehill Guineas on March 31, had no luck and finished seventh.

With the media out for blood, (makes a good story), Justin Sheehan, Universal Prince's jockey, found himself having to defend his ride because he went for a rails run in the straight rather than taking the horse eight wide around the field. Now Justin Sheehan is a very good, but underrated jockey. He knew what he was doing.

So when Universal Prince backed up the following week on April 7, punters had no hesitation in sending him out as an even shorter favourite, $1.35. If they lost $100 on him the week before they were now putting $300 on him to break even.

After all, punters had been assured by the media that Justin Sheehan would ride him properly this time, take him to the outside and give him every chance to show his superior ability, run down the field and win.

Justin Sheehan did just that. The horse died on his run 100 metres out and finished second. That is why, explained a now vindicated Justin Sheehan, he went for a rails run the previous week. The horse simply cannot sustain such a long run.

Pity about the punters who followed every word of this drama and went in with their money.

Hindsight is wonderful

When Ha Ha won the Golden Slipper at Rosehill last Saturday a punter told me, in much rougher language than what I write here," I should have backed it. It was so obvious. Trained by Gai Waterhouse with Jim Cassidy riding."
One slight problem. Jim Cassidy had 10 previous rides in the race without riding the winner! That blows the jockey theory right out the window.

How could Curata Storm possibly win the $1,000,000 Group 1 Weight for Age event at Rosehill last Saturday? The three year old colt had only one win from 10 starts and had earned a paltry $22,500 in prizemoney. Of the other 10 runners five had won over $1,000,000 in prizemoney! Yet Curata Storm worked wide around the field at the 1200 to take the lead and won like a good thing.
There are a few clues:

1. He won his last start by 13 lengths, even though it was only a Hawkesbury Class 1. It was a sensational win.
2. Under any traditional method of weight and class ratings his win at Hawkesbury could not possibly give him a high rating. He would have needed to win by 30 lengths. So in this case those ratings were useless.
3. Trainer John Hawkes is not noted for entering horses in Group 1 races just for the track gallop.

Next Pages
How to hit the punters for six
Big fields - risky bets
Jockey out of form?
Top horse training feat
Form reversals
This horse should have won the Golden Slipper

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