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13/3/2010
edition
Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields
There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about
favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on
a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne,
Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details
of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example
if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer
odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than
they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate
on favourites in small fields? And so on.
Here are the results from Saturday, 6th. March, 2010. On this day the $1,000,000 Group 1 Newmarket Handicap was held at Flemington horse racing track.
Flemington:
Track Dead
R1 $150,000 2YO. Fillies. Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Shaaheq
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $1.85
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: David Hayes
Warwick Farm:
Track Slow
R1 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 90. Handicap.
Distance: 2200 metres
Number of runners: 4
Favourite: Strike One
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Chris Waller
R3 $150,000 3YO. Fillies. Surround Stakes. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: More Joyous
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $1.22
Top fluctuation: $1.22
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.10
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
R4 $125,000 2YO. Fillies. Kindergarten Stakes. Group 3. Set weights.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Solar Charged
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.85
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: John O'Shea
Morphettville:
Track Good
R1 $40,000 3YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Show Bling
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.70
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: Jon O'Connor
Winner: Zhen Zhen
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
R2 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Big Slick
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.40
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Dennis O'Leary
Winner: Orchestra Stalls
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Mark Pegus
Trainer: Chris Oxlade
R3 $32,000 Rating 86. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Honourable Kind
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.70
Jockey: Libby Hopwood
Trainer: Lloyd Kennewell
Winner: Hawks Bay
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Mark Pegus
Trainer: Neil Dyer
R4 $40,000 2YO. Open. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Stirling Grove
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $1.55
Top fluctuation: $1.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Richard Jolly
R5 $25,000 Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Balzoni
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $1.70
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: David Baylis
Winner: The Fugitive
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.70
Jockey: Libby Hopwood
Trainer: David Hayes
This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form analysis - winning form is good form
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Number One Winners horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Newmarket Handicap Day - 6/3/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Futurity Stakes Day - 27/2/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Blue Diamond Stakes day - 20/2/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 6/3/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 27/2/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/2/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 20/2/2010
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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