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12/12/2009
edition
Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites
Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?
These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on
a regular basis.
We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.
Here are the results from Caulfield, Saturday, 5th. December, 2009.
Caulfield
Track: Good
Rail: Out 10 metres.
Penetrometer: 5.15
R1 $70,000 3YO. Rating 72. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Cinecitta
Days since last start: 30
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 3-16
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.25
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
R2 $70,000 3YO & up. Fillies & Mares. Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Roof Raiser
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1300
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Stacey Rawiller
Trainer: Dennis Oliver
R3 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Paganini's Soul
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-6
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.10
Jockey: Billy Egan
Trainer: Tony Noonan
R4 $70,000 3YO & up. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Chameleon
Days since last start: 154
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 4-16
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: Peter Snowden
R5 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Rating 72. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Pins On Ice
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 2-6
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $5,50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
R6 $90,000 Open.
Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Time Matters
Days since last start: 161
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 10-19
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jarrod Fry
Trainer: Darren Weir
R7 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Timetable
Days since last start: 28
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 4-8
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Lee Freedman
R8 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 14
Equal Favourite: Sheedy
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1300
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Equal Favourite: True Tales
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Tony Vasil
Comments:
In a tough day for favourites there was just one winning favourite. In R1 Cinecitta had a break of 30 days and rose in distance from 1000 metres to 1200 metres. It finished fourth. In R5 Pins On Ice jumped in distance from 1000 metres to 1400 metres. It did a great job to finish second. While in R7 Timetable, which was unplaced at its previous start, had 28 days between runs, as it rose in distance from 1800 metres to 2000 metres. It ran third. Two horses resumed as favourites after lengthy spells. In R4 Chameleon after a spell of 154 days was unplaced over 1200 metres. While in R6 Time Matters after a spell of 161 days was unplaced over 1100 metres.
This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing handicapping betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The High Strike Rate Win Big horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 5/12/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 28/11/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 21/11/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/12/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 28/11/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 21/11/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 21/11/2009
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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