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12/11/2004 edition

Victoria Derby
Betting Tips from the Track
Plunge Horses
Money Talks?

Each week we will feature tables showing just how successful the "smart money" was. To qualify a horse must have firmed 5% in the betting market. For example if a horse was backed in from $5.00 (4/1 or 20%) to $4.00 (3/1 or 25%) it will qualify. Odds calculator gives you tables.

When the horse wins, so you can judge for yourself how sensible or otherwise it is over the long term to "follow the money" on the tote, we will also include as an example the the SuperTab tote dividend. Plenty of tote punters will have collected that tote dividend. Most of them would have "followed the money" on the tote.

Are they getting big enough winning dividends when they "follow the money" on the tote to cover themselves for when "following the tote money loses"?

The jockeys and trainers are also important. You may see some jockeys and trainers consistently bringing home plunges whereas others regularly fail to deliver.

Warwick Farm, Saturday, 6th. November, 2004

Horse, jockey
and trainer

Firmed from % Firm SuperTab
Tote		 Finish
Encolisa
6.00
4.60
 5.07%
-
3/9
Craig Agnew (jockey) Gwenda Markwell (trainer)
Langborghini
2.10
1.65
 12.99%
1.90
1/10
Patrick Ferris Tim Martin
Wardsky
7.00
4.80
 6.54%
-
6/9
James Innes Paul Perry
C'est Le Vie
51.00
13.00
 5.73%
-
7/11
Rod Quinn Tim Donnelly
Flemington, Saturday, 6th. November, 2004

Horse, jockey
and trainer

Firmed from % Firm SuperTab
Tote		 Finish
Dance The Waves
3.60
2.70
 9.26%
-
3/11
Nash Rawiller Grahame Begg
 


Rosehill, Saturday, 30th. October, 2004

Horse, jockey
and trainer

Firmed from % Firm SuperTab
Tote		 Finish
Dower
2.70
2.35
 5.51%
1.90
1/9
Mathew Cahill (jockey) Graeme Rogerson (trainer)
Basra
3.20
2.70
 5.79%
-
6/9
William Pearson Gai Waterhouse
The Spit
13.00
6.50
 7.69%
8.20
1/9
Ronnie Stewart Gerald Ryan
Great Desert
4.20
3.20
 7.44%
-
4/9
Brad Srewart Jack Denham
Antiene
4.00
3.30
 5.30%
-
4/12
William Pearson Clarry Conners
Estaad
11.00
7.00
 5.20%
-
2/10
William Pearson Paul Perry
Lord Of The Land
6.50
4.60
 6.36%
3.90
1/9
Craig Agnew Anthony Cummings
Flemington, Saturday, 30th. October, 2004
Victoria Derby Day

Horse, jockey
and trainer

Firmed from % Firm SuperTab
Tote		 Finish
Brannigan
7.00
5.00
 5.71%
-
2/10
Darren Beadman John Hawkes
Recapitalize
8.00
5.00
 7.50%
-
9/16
Vincent Hall Mathew Ellerton
 
.

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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