12/10/2001 edition

Horse Racing
Betting Strategy

Unbelievable form reversal

The first race at Victoria Park, a restricted three year old race over 1300 metres, saw an absolutely amazing form reversal.

Beltello 17 days earlier had his first race start. It was over 1210 metres - a maiden at Balaclava. Unwanted in the betting, he started at $21.00. He raced up to that and was beaten by 13 lengths.

He then came out next start and won at Victoria Park! Of course, he was again unwanted in the betting. In the 10 horse field he paid tote odds up to $114.90. That was an absolute wipeout result for punters.

Unfortunately there's nothing you can do about those sort of results. All the form study and analysis won't let you catch a winner like that. If you have made sensible bets in the race you just have to cop it sweet and be thankful it doesn't happen too often.

Defier is a classy horse

This lightly raced four year old gelding, trained by Guy Walter at Warwick Farm, is all class.

At Flemington last Saturday Larry Cassidy was bursting for a run in the straight, but badly held up. When an opening presented, Defier burst through with a very quick turn of foot to win well. Only the best horses have that sort of acceleration.

Defier now has three wins and four placings from only eight starts. Don't be surprised if he wins more races during the Carnival in Melbourne.

Watch out for this horse and trainer

What a huge win by four year old gelding Raymon last Saturday at Rosehill. He backed up from his win at Warwick Farm five days earlier where he carried 52.5kg. It was a race restricted to winners of no more than two metropolitan races.

At Rosehill in similar class he had 57.5kg. to contend with and won in style. He has been in the money every one of his eight races and now has four wins and four places.

Raymon is trained by Joseph Pride who used to work for John Size. John Size obtained spectacular results from ordinary horses and horses struggling for form from other stables were rejuvenated when they joined the Size stable. No other Sydney trainer could so consistently land winners of important races at huge odds. John Size is now training overseas.

Joseph Pride appears to have learnt well from his time under John Size. Horses trained by Joseph Pride certainly need a big watch put on them.

Plodders' race - wide barrier, no luck

Seven year old gelding Roses And Wine looked well placed in a restricted 2000 metres plodders' event at Victoria Park.

Unlike most of the plodders in the race, he had an excellent strike rate with 12 wins and five seconds from 29 starts. He won the Coleraine Cup over 1800 metres from barrier eight carrying 59kg. only 13 days earlier and dropped one kilo for that win. That form holds up very well for Adelaide racing. Wayne Hokai kept the ride. (He had also booted home bolter Beltello earlier in the day).

The query was the barrier from the 2000 metres start. Roses And Wine started from barrier 11 in the 13 horse field. However punters dismissed that and he firmed on track from $3.80 to $3.50 favourite. Punters were not prepared for what happened.

Roses And Wine was out fast from the barrier, but got caught wide. He was eased back, a few lengths off the lead, but was still wide. He covered ground out wide for the entire race and folded in the straight to finish tenth, beaten by over 10 lengths.

As so often happens in Adelaide plodders' races a bolter won. Six year old gelding Southern Way, who had four wins and eight placings from 36 starts, won the race. He paid $39.70.

Mind you, he wasn't as hard to find as most bolters. He finished strongly at the same track, distance and class two weeks earlier to be beaten by one and a half lengths. Provided you were prepared to take a leap in faith that this inconsistent conveyance would put in a repeat effort he was certainly worth a small wager at the odds.

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Future winners at big odds

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Short Priced Tote Favourites
These are losing bets.

Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with bookmaker betting ring prices.

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