12/10/2001 edition

Horse Racing
Betting Strategy

Provide better comments, Sky Racing

How about management getting their "experts" from the track to publicly demonstrate an understanding of betting percentages? Then maybe we won't get comments like, "Looking down here they've all gone for a drift," because an unrealistic opening market at a tight 150% was set.

As Sky Racing wants to increase betting turnover, particularly on the New South Wales tote, it coud even be beneficial to them. Thanks to the media "follow the money" line there are plenty of punters loathe to follow horses who ease. When "Looking down here they've all gone for a drift," is said by the Sky "expert" it may actually deter some punters from having a bet.

Another racing media myth

After Michael Pelling won the sixth at Doomben on State Of Peace Sky Racing anchorman John Tapp added, "Not many meetings go by in Brisbane that Mick Pelling doesn't ride a winner. There's another one! "

Pelling has a win strike rate of 12%. That means he averages two winners for every 17 rides. That must mean more often than not he does not ride a winner at a Brisbane meeting.

When inaccurate "information" is repeated often enough in the media it is understandable punters take it as fact. John Tapp would have been correct if he said,"There's a winner for Mick Pelling. He rides a winner in less than 50% of Brisbane meetings."

Spring Carnival racing favourites

With many big fields full of classy horses it is a trap to fall for the favourite and take short odds.

At Flemington last Saturday a Group 3 mares race over 1420 metres had 16 runners in it, many with very realistic winning chances. Calm Smytzer, ridden by Brett Prebble, firmed from $3.20 to $3.00, a terrible price. Calm Smytzer was not a true 33% winning chance while the other 15 runners between them had only a 67% chance of winning. Calm Smytzer finished third. The winner, Tickle My paid $16.30.

The following race at Flemington was a Group 3 race over 1200 metres. There were 15 runners in this open race, yet Gold Class, ridden by Michael Cahill, started at the poor odds of $3.00. The comments made above about Calm Smytzer apply equally well here. Gold Class finished third. The winner, Belle Du Jour paid $9.00.

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
Trainer watch
Class horses
And more...

Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites
These are losing bets.

Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with bookmaker betting ring prices.

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