12/8/2006 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 5th. August.

Rosehill: Track Heavy

R6 $100,000 3YO and upward. Group 3. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Crimson Reign
Result: second
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: Jason McLachlan
Winner: Imprisoned
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.30
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: John O'Shea

Here are the results from Saturday, 29th. July.

Warwick Farm: Track Heavy

R1 $60,000 3YO and upward. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: four
Favourite: Tuareg
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.40
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Impatient Star
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Adrian Robinson
Trainer: Bill Prain

R2 $55,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Simple Pleasures
Result: third
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.50
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: Craig Carmody
Winner: Stormpede
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Peter G Moody

R3 $55,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Rosecutter
Result: second
Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctuation: $1.90
Jockey: Tim Clark
Trainer: John O'Shea
Winner: Sharp Aunty
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.90
Jockey: Joshua Parr
Trainer: Jason McLachlan

R5 $55,000 3YO and upward. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Flaming
Result: third
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $4.20
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Connoisseur
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.80
Jockey: Tye Angland
Trainer: Grahame Begg

Moonee Valley: Track Slow

R2 $45,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Hachiman
Result: third
Starting price: $2.35
Top fluctuation: $2.40
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Brian Mayfield-Smith
Winner: Apple Lode
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Steve McKinnon

R4 $45,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Blutigeroo
Result: second
Starting price: $1.65
Top fluctuation: $1.70
Jockey: Andrew Mallyon
Trainer: Colin Little
Winner: Delvecchio
Starting price: $7.50
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.30
Jockey: Ben Smith
Trainer: Mick Price

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing handicapping made easy
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
The Improvers horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill & Caulfield
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 5/8/2006
Punt to Win index

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