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12/4/2014 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about horse racing favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring horse racing favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday horse races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the horse racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most horse races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 29th. March, 2014.

Rosehill: George Ryder Stakes & Rosehill Guineas Day - Track Heavy R1 - R5, Slow R6 - R9.

R1 $150,000 N E Mannion Cup. 3YO and upwards. Group 3. Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Opinion
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.40
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: The Offer
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse


Moonee Valley: Track Dead.

R2 $80,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Elite Elle
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.30
Jockey: Patrick Moloney
Trainer: Tony Vasil
Winner: Sivva Lady
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.20
Jockey: Harry Coffey
Trainer: Darren Weir

Here is the result for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 22nd. March, 2014.

Sandown Lakeside: Track Good.

R1 $80,000 2YO. Open. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Lassitude
Result: 7th.
Starting price: $3.80
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: Veuvelicious
Starting price: $7.50
Top fluctuation: $9.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.00
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Brent Stanley

This edition of Punt to Win:
Sydney horse racing autumn carnival betting tips
The Free Insider Tip from the Trainer horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: Golden Slipper Stakes Day 5/4/2014
Group 1 horse racing results: Rosehill Guineas & George Ryder Stakes Day 29/3/2014
Group 1 horse racing results: 22/3/2014 & 21/3/2014
Free horse racing ratings & betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/4/2014

Betting favourites in small fields: 29/3/2014 & 22/3/2014
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 22/3/2014
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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