Betting First Up Horses

"Backing horses resuming from a spell is always much riskier than backing horses with good, current exposed form.

At Rosehill last Saturday in the Fillies and Mares Open over 1200 metres Livid resumed from a five months spell having her first start for new trainer Gerald Ryan. Now Livid is no slouch. She was a close third in a Listed race at Caulfield in December last year behind St. Christoph and was competitive in the Group 3 Weight for Age Rubiton Stakes at Caulfield behind Miss Pennymoney and a Listed race at Flemington behind Black Bean in January this year.

With her apprentices' three kilos claim she came into the race very well with only 53 kilos and back to mares' company was well down in class. She also had a decent first up record from only three starts with a win and very close second to the smart Northern Song last time first up.

Livid was also well supported in the betting ring and started at $4.20. So what could go wrong? She led and folded in the straight, beaten by 10 lengths. From the stewards' report the jockey and the stable foreman both could offer no explanation. A post-race examination also revealed no abnormality."
First published in Punt to Win, August 4, 2000.  

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting first up horses
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Warwick Farm, Flemington betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 5/3/2004
Punt to Win index

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