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12/1/2001 edition
Long Shot Winners
There are always horses winning at excellent odds like last
Saturday. Most of them had the clues to their win which were simply
overlooked in their form. Here are a few tips to help you find those
big winners. I will look in detail at the form of Shaanxi a big Jackpot
winner for us last Saturday.
Shaanxi $16.00 (3YO Fillies restricted to one metropolitan win.
1100 metres.)
1.The money came for her in the betting ring where she was backed in from
$16.00 to $10.00. However, it was her previous form that was the key, not the
flow of money.
2. As a two year old she was a good thing beaten in March, just missing
out after being badly checked in the running.
3. Next start 10 days later on March 11 she was a short priced favourite
in a two year old fillies open, reared at the start and failed miserably. The
going was also Heavy and she has clearly shown since she is not a wet
tracker.
4. You can dismiss her failure next start, April 12, from barrier
10 in a field of 14 over 1250 metres at Canterbury. It was a horror barrier and
she was wide in running.
5. Ten days later after missing the start she was only beaten by four
lengths in a fillies listed race. Not a bad effort considering she started at
$67.00. She then went for a spell.
6. Resuming on November 1 she put in an top run from a wide barrier in a
race not too different in standard from Saturday's. She made up a lot of ground
and finished third beaten by less than a length. She also met with support in
the betting, firming from $5.50 to $4.80.
7. Next start on November 23 in a restricted fillies race over 1100
metres at Canterbury there was a bit of specking for her and she firmed from
$9.00 to $7.50. She was making good ground in the straight, got badly checked
off heels, which put her out of the race, but she still finished the race off
well even though she was beaten by over four lengths.
8. She then failed in a fillies and mares maiden. Ignore the race. The
track was Slow.
9. At her most recent start on December 16, she had no luck in a
Newcastle 3YO maiden, being badly held up for a run.
10. She had clearly been racing with terrible luck which had cost her a
win on a number of occasions. On the minimum weight for last Saturday's race she
was very well handicapped. Her past form showed she was easily good enough to
win a restricted fillies race. Top jockey Danny Beasley was given the ride. A
very significant jockey change. The best jockeys tend to avoid the bad luck that
plagues their lesser counterparts when they are on one of the best horses in the
race.
Shaanxi won well and set a new class record.
Next: Punt
to Win 5/1/2001
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reserved.
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