12/1/2001 edition

Odds On, Get Off

It is amazing these days how poorly horses starting at odds on perform in the main city tracks. Last Saturday four horses started at odds on.

Adamantly $1.70 first  
Magnaforce $1.70 second
Strabane $1.80 first
Swanette $1.90 unplaced

$100 win bet on each horse produced a loss of $50.

What is more, if you looked closely at the form of these horses you would realise that odds on were poor value odds. For example Swanette rose 3.5kg. in weight to 56kg. after easily winning a Mares Open by more than three lengths over 2000 metres 11 days earlier at Caulfield. It is one thing to win easily carrying 52.5 kg. It is another matter all together to repeat the dose with a hefty weight rise to the steadier of 56kg.

Many punters also seem to get carried away with strike rates. In the example above a 50% strike rate has you losing. What is important are the odds of your winners compared to your strike rate. For example if your average priced winner at level stakes is $10.00  then you only need a winner every 10 bets to break even. That is a 10% strike rate. Do better and the selections are returning a profit. 

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