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18/12/2010 edition
Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class
We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class,"
to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly
we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above
the minimum."
Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how
handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse
will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.
In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety
vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly
with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.
The table below shows how horses
that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting
ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.)
We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information
over the long term.
Rosehill - 11/12/2010 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Rock Kingdom |
59.5kg. |
1 |
2400 |
$6.50 |
2/9 |
Flemington - 11/12/2010 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Jungle Ruler |
59kg. |
5 |
1200 |
$9.00 |
10/13 |
Eagle Farm - 11/12/2010 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Our Lukas |
59.5kg. |
5 |
1600 |
$6.00 |
4/11 |
Rosehill - 4/12/2010 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Title |
59.5kg. |
2 |
1300 |
$1.75fav. |
2/10 |
Caulfield - 4/12/2010 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Tampiko |
59kg. |
8 |
1800 |
$2.25fav. |
3/11 |
Morphettville - 4/12/2010 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Rockwood |
60kg. |
1 |
1400 |
$6.50 |
1/7 |
Randwick Kensington - 27/11/2010 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Delago Bolt |
60.5kg. |
7 |
1000 |
$6.00 |
3/7 |
First Look |
59kg. |
4 |
1550 |
$10.00 |
7/10 |
Eagle Farm - 27/11/2010 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Bazzooka |
59kg. |
6 |
1200 |
$6.00 |
3/16 |
Morphettville - 27/11/2010 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Brad Star |
59.5kg. |
6 |
2400 |
$2.40fav. |
1/8 |
Tramuntana |
62kg. |
6 |
1000 |
$7.00 |
5/11 |
Rosehill - 20/11/2010 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Saramenha |
59kg. |
6 |
1100 |
$1.30fav. |
2/6 |
Adnocon |
60kg. |
7 |
1200 |
$11.00 |
4/10 |
Moonee Valley - 20/11/2010 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Zaira |
59kg. |
2 |
1600 |
$2.80fav. |
6/10 |
Doomben - 20/11/2010 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Phelan Ready |
59.5kg. |
1 |
1200 |
$7.50 |
12/15 |
Joint Chiefs |
59.5kg. |
5 |
1110 |
$7.00 |
5/16 |
Sandown Hillside - 13/11/2010 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Illustrious Blue |
59.5kg. |
10 |
3200 |
$10.00 |
5/10 |
Morphettville - 13/11/2010 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Sky Devil |
59kg. |
7 |
1400 |
$10.00 |
10/14 |
Flemington - 6/11/2010 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Trader |
59kg. |
1 |
1600 |
$6.50 |
11/13 |
Territory |
59kg. |
2 |
1400 |
$4.20 |
3/10 |
That's Not It |
59kg. |
10 |
1500 |
$7.00 |
7/10 |
Doomben - 6/11/2010 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Ghetto Blaster |
59.5kg. |
5 |
1110 |
$4.60e.fav. |
7/13 |
Forestreno |
59kg. |
4 |
1400 |
$7.50 |
6/13 |
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This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form lines
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Track Specialists horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 11/12/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 4/12/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 27/11/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/11/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 20/11/2010
Punt to Win
index
You Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.
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