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18/12/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 11th. December, 2010.

Rosehill: Track Good.

R2 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Hot Snitzel
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Gerald Ryan

R2 $70,000 3YO. Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Liechtenstein
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Ron Quinton
Winner: Falino
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Tim Clark
Trainer: Jeffrey Caught

R3 $70,000 3YO &UP. Fillies & Mares. Rating 84. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Flying Success
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.80
Jockey: Nathan Berry
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Cabernet
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Grahame Begg


Morphettville: Track Good.

R1 $32,000 Rating 94. Handicap.
Distance: 2014 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Down Under Boy
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.50
Jockey: Steven Vella
Trainer: John Symons & Sheila Laxon
Winner: Journey
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Todd Pannell
Trainer: David Hayes

R4 $32,000 Rating 94. Handicap.
Distance: 2600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Tara Man
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.30
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Tony McEvoy
Winner: Gotta Keep Cool
Starting price: $2.45
Top fluctuation: $2.45
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Billy Egan
Trainer: Darren Weir

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form lines
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Track Specialists horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 11/12/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 4/12/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 27/11/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/11/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 20/11/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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