11/10/2002 edition

Defier - Don't Defy the odds

Defier started in the Group 1 Epsom Handicap run over 1600 metres at Randwick last Saturday at a ludicrous $2.80, backed in from a terrible $3.30. At those prices Defier had to be one of the worst bets of the year.

Defier had third top weight of 56.5kg. In the field of 15 Defier, whom gets back in his races, started from barrier nine. He was going to need luck in running. But Defier never had a realistic 35% chance of winning the race. That only left 65% for the remaining 14 runners.

That included horses like:

Excellerator, who won the Epsom on Saturday and met Defier 3kg. better at the weights for a long neck defeat a week earlier.

Shogun Lodge who ran second to Sunline in the Group 1 Doncaster Handicap at the same track and distance in March this year, finishing ahead of Defier and was meeting Defier 5kg. better at the weights compared with that run.

Universal Prince, a Group 1 winner over 1600 metres, who put in a slashing last start run four weeks earlier.

And so the list goes on and on...

Taking short odds about favourites in feature races, which usually have big, open fields is a recipe for becoming a fully fledged member of the punting poor house. In so many races these days the fields are so even that $4.00 and $5.00 is no value for the horse with the best winning chances. Let alone around $2.00 and $3.00 being value.

There are two very important rules to succeed at punting.

1. Every horse in a race has some chances of winning.
2. You must insist on realistic odds about any horse you back.

Divide 100 by the odds and that gives you the strike rate/win percentage needed to break even. For example, if you take $2.00 about a horse that means you need a 50% winning strike rate just to break even.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Defier - worst bet of the year
Good betting advice?
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Randwick plunge horses
Money talks - Flemington plunge horses
Money talks - Doomben plunge horses
Money talks - Cheltenham plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 4/10/2002
Punt to Win index

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