Punt to Win

Pro-Punter
Horse racing forums
Swap tips and discuss betting systems and software
Win at racing

Betting systems software

Racing tips and info
Betting links
Other info

 

 

11/8/2007 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 4th. August.

Rosehill: Track Dead

R1 $70,000 3YO. Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: El Cambio
Result: second
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Royal Discretion
Starting price: $13.00
Top fluctuation: $14.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $16.20
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

Caulfield: Track Good

R1 $56,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Allervite
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Gary Portelli
Winner: Pins On Parade
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.40
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R5 $100,000 Group 3. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Haradasun
Result: second
Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.10
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Tony Vasil
Winner: Apache Cat
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Greg Eurell

Doomben: Track Good

R4 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1615 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Omnitrader
Result: first
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Adrian Coome
Trainer: Maryann Thexton

Victoria Park: Track Slow

R1 $20,000 3YO and upward. Steeple. Handicap.
Distance: 3200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Mr Hefner
Result: first
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Adam Trinder
Trainer: Chris Wood

This edition of Punt to Win:
Making money betting on tote first fours
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill & Caulfield
 Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
 Punt to Win 4/8/2007
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

Copyright ©1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved.
 

Home | Contact us | Horse racing forum | Advertise

 
  Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.