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11/1/2002 edition

Betting to Win

Unraced horses - big danger

In the first at Doomben last Saturday, a 2YO Fillies Open over 1010 metres, Fairy Queen was sent out the odds on $1.80 favourite in the seven horse field on the strength of a three lengths win six days earlier at the Sunshine Coast. She finished fourth.

Kootenay, trained by John Wallace and ridden by Stathi Katsidis, having her first race, won and paid up to $13.10 on the tote. She was beaten by over eight lengths in a trial, but that was way back in September.

The next at Doomben, 2YO Colts and Geldings Open over 1010 metres, saw the unraced Maltese Liner, ridden by Glen Colless and trained at Ballina by George Reid also sent out the odds on $1.80 favourite in the seven horse field on the strength of a trial win at Ballina by over three lengths.

Maltese Liner showed no early speed, settled near last five lengths off the lead and was under the whip by the home turn. He belatedly ran home for a well beaten second.

The winner was Rory's North, one of two horses in the race with race experience. He was still a maiden, having his fifth start. He had finished a close second in two Toowoomba maidens this time in. Leading Brisbane hoop Jim Byrne rode him, but that was no leg in considering the other horse with race experience, Wearing The Green was ridden by Stathi Katsidis, and two of the unraced brigade, Maltese Liner - Glen Colless and Nedscay - Scott Seamer, also had leading jockeys.

Check out last week's Punt to Win for more on the topic.

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Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with the top official bookmaker betting ring prices.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners recently?
If you did, see the minimum prices you should have received.
Make sure you do!

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Banker Under Fire 4.60 8.00 94% $340
Thorns 3.30 4.40 48% $110
Elkabayo 3.00 4.00 50% $100
Ice Dancer 2.70 3.50 47% $80


Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Rocket Ball 35.70 44.90 $920
Kootenay 8.90 13.10 $420
Crystallion 11.40 15.40 $400
She's Alluring 14.80 18.60 $380


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