11/1/2002 edition

Winning Betting Odds

Odds, odds and more odds

Punting is very much a fine margins game. You can win or lose a fortune by the bob of a head. A split second decision by a jockey can mean the difference between a horse getting a run or missing out, running on strongly for second or getting up on the line and winning.

Similarly with the odds you get. For a chance of long term success getting top odds is essential. But simply taking a top fluctuation bet without being able to give a minimum price means you do not have control of your betting and leave yourself open to getting very poor value. In many markets the top odds of every horse is poor value because the markets are well over 100%. You have to get what you consider to be a value price.

There were plenty of tote punters who felt quite pleased with themselves cheering home Banker Under Fire at Rosehill last week. On SuperTab they collected $4.60 for the win. Compare that with freely available top betting ring odds of $8.00!! Honestly, those tote punters aren't in the race.

At level stakes backing a winner like Banker Under Fire once in every seven bets will return a profit on turnover of over 14% for the punters who got $8.00. For the punters who got $4.60 backing a winner like that once in every seven bets will return a loss of nearly 36% on turnover. That is absolutely amazing. Same selections. Same bets. Different odds. Some punters will return a solid profit while others will be showing hefty losses.

That was not all. Play Station put in a phenomenal performance to win the Listed Bernborough Handicap at Doomben. He carried 57kg. in this 1615 metres race, where they start only 50 metres from a turn. He also had the widest barrier in the field, a shocker in 15. Thanks to the late scratching of Prince Hakeem he didn't have to start from 16. That late srcatching definitely increased his winning chances. Punters on SuperTab collected $5.90. Top official betting ring odds of $10.00 was available!

You only have to look through the statistics for good horses starting from wide barriers carrying weight to know that $5.90 is way under the odds. They do not have anywhere near a one in six winning strike rate. Punters who took those short tote odds about Play Station will most likely also back plenty of other "Play Stations" which lose and of course finish behind.

Backing good horses and getting good selections will not return a profit if any old price is obtained. The odds you obtain about the selections are nearly as important as the selections themselves.

Make a point of visiting this page regularly to see our updated tables comparing tote odds with betting ring odds.

Next pages
Unraced horses, big danger
Future winners at big odds
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Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites
These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with the top official bookmaker betting ring prices.

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