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10/11/2012
edition
Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields
There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about
favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring
favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and
Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.
Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details
of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example
if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer
odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than
they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate
on favourites in small fields? And so on.
Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Cox Plate Day, Saturday, 27th. October, 2012.
Moonee Valley - Cox Plate Day: Track Dead.
R2 $100,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: I Get Around
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.45
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Paul Perry
Winner: Freereturn
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.60
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Jason Warren
R3 $100,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Midnight Martini
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.45
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
Winner: Mourinho
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctuation: $8.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.20
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Peter Gelagotis
R5 $220,000 The MV Vase (registered name.) Group 2. 3YO. Set weights.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: It's A Dundeel
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.30
Jockey: James McDonald
Trainer: Murray Baker
Winner: Super Cool
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $9.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.30
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
R7 $220,000 Crystal Mile (registered name.) Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Rangirangdoo
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.10
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Silent Achiever
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.00
Jockey: James McDonald
Trainer: Roger James
Rosehill: Track Good.
R1 $85,000 3YO. Rating 72. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Queen's Elect
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.60
Jockey: Jenny Duggan
Trainer: David Payne
Winner: Fiveandahalfstar
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Peter Robl
Trainer: Anthony Cummings
R2 $85,000 2YO. Open. Set weights plus penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Sammy's Girl
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $2.80
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Never Can Tell
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Peter Robl
Trainer: Anthony Cummings
R3 $85,000 3YO & UP. Rating 85. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Cantonese
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.00
Jockey: Jenny Duggan
Trainer: Bjorn Baker
Winner: Hoylonny
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Chris Waller
Doomben: Track Good.
R4 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Funtantes
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.25
Jockey: Tegan Harrison
Trainer: Robert Heathcote
Winner: Morning Captain
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.60
Jockey: Ric McMahon
Trainer: Kelly Doughty
This edition of Punt to Win:
Flemington 2012 Melbourne Cup free betting advice, tips, odds, betting system and free Melbourne Cup horse racing ratings
The Free Melbourne Cup horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: VRC Derby Day 3/11/2012
Group 1 horse racing results: Cox Plate 27/10/2012, Manikato Stakes 26/10/2012 & Caulfield Cup 20/10/2012
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: VRC Derby Day 3/11/2012
Betting favourites in small fields: Cox Plate Day 27/10/2012
Betting favourites in small fields: Caulfield Cup Day 20/10/2012
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 20/10/2012
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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