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10/10/2009
edition
Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites
Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?
These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on
a regular basis.
We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.
Here are the results from Flemington, Saturday, 3rd. October, 2009.
Flemington - Turnbull Stakes Day
Track: Good
Rail: True position
Penetrometer: 4.78
R1 $100,000 2YO. Listed. Set weights.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Pellizotti
Days since last start: 12 (barrier trial)
Distance last start: 800 (barrier trial)
Result last start: 1-5 (barrier trial - no competitive races)
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman
R2 $150,000 3YO. Listed. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Tribunal
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1700
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Mick Price
R3 $150,000 3YO. Colts & Geldings. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Sigma
Days since last start: 25
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 8th.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Peter Snowden
R4 $150,000 Listed. Open Handicap.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Light Vision
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 2-16
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robert Smerdon
R5 $200,000 Rose Of Kingston Stakes.
Mares. Group 2. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Hot Danish
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Les Bridge
R6 $250,000 Edward Manifold Stakes.
3YO Fillies. Group 2. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Mont Fleuri
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 3-15
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman
R7 $500,000 Turnbull Stakes.
4YO & up. Group 1. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Vigor
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 6-16
Result this start: 13th.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
R8 $250,000 Gilgai Stakes.
3YO & up.
Group 2. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Ortensia
Days since last start: 119
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 3-20
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Tony Noonan
R9 $125,000 4YO & up. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Rightfully Yours
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Mick Price
Comments:
In R7, Vigor, the one favourite that was unplaced at its previous start, finished well down the track. While in R8 Ortensia, resuming after 119 days also was unplaced.
This edition of Punt to Win:
Wagering on horses ridden by apprentice jockeys
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Consistent Winners horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 3/10/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 26/9/2009 & 19/9/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/10/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/9/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 19/9/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 19/9/2009
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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