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10/10/2003
edition
Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields
There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about
favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on
a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne,
Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details
of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example
if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer
odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than
they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate
on favourites in small fields? And so on.
The results should prove quite interesting.
Here are the results from Saturday, October 4.
Randwick: Track Good
R2 $50,000 4YO and upward. Sc1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Before Too Long
Result: first
Winning/losing margin: 2.3 lengths
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctation: $2.20
Tote dividends' range: $1.80 - $1.80
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Gary Portelli
Doomben: Track Dead
R1 $24,000 Rs0ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1020 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Masindor
Result: third
Winning/losing margin: 1.4 lengths
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctation: $2.70
Jockey: Michael McDonald
Trainer: Doug Duryea
Winner: Avon Jewel
Winning/losing margin: 1.3 lengths
Starting price: $11.00
Top fluctation: $11.00
Tote dividends' range: $10.80 - $12.70
Jockey: Mitchell Rice
Trainer: Harry Richardson
R2 $24,000 Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1640 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Sea Artist
Result: second
Winning/losing margin: short neck
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctation: $2.40
Jockey: Stathi Katsidis
Trainer: Troy Hall
Winner: Scenic Wells
Winning/losing margin: short neck
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctation: $4.20
Tote dividends' range: $4.90 - $5.70
Jockey: Neil Jolly
Trainer: Craig Brown
Cheltenham: Track Good
R1 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs2ly. Handicap.
Distance: 2250 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Cezante
Result: fourth
Winning/losing margin: 1.5 lengths
Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctation: $1.70
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: Richard Jolly
Winner: Blue Chequer
Winning/losing margin: 0.8 lengths
Starting price: $31.00
Top fluctation: $41.00
Tote dividends' range: $20.40 - $22.40
Jockey: Justin Potter
Trainer: David Halliday
R3 $24,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Kolase
Result: fourth
Winning/losing margin: 1.8 lengths
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctation: $4.20
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Barry Dunn
Winner: Cubiton
Winning/losing margin: neck
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctation: $5.50
Tote dividends' range: $3.80 - $4.00
Jockey: Nozi Tomizawa
Trainer: Peter Jolly
This edition of Punt to Win:
Carnival
betting tips
Trainer/jockey
strike rates
Spring Carnival horses - good runs, good betting odds
Betting
favourites in small fields
Money
talks - Randwick betting tips from the track
Money
talks - Flemington betting tips from the track
Handicapping
tips - weight and class
Future
winners - unlucky horses
Punt
to Win 3/10/2003
Punt to Win
index
Betting
packages
You
Need Top Odds
It
is just about impossible to get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and the poor value tote horses to make up for
the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.
Short
priced tote favourites
are losing bets.
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reserved.
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