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10/9/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from last Saturday, September 4.

Warwick Farm: Track Good
R3 $100,000 3YO. Group 3. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Fastnet Rock
Result: first
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Paul Perry

R4 $100,000 3YO Colts & Geldings. Group 3. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Dane Shadow
Result: first
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: John Hawkes

R6 $150,000 3YO and upward. Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: So Assertive
Result: second
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $3.10
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Unearthly
Starting price: $21.00
Top fluctuation: $31.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $25.00
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: David Payne

Flemington: Track Heavy
R1 $75,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Al Marwa
Result: third
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
Jockey: Nicholas Ryan
Trainer: John Sadler
Winner: Unabated
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.50
Jockey: Michael Walker
Trainer: Bill Mitchell

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting horses at big odds
Get those betting odds
Betting "tote firmers"
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Warwick Farm, Flemington betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 3/9/2004
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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