10/8/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Jockey Watch

Damien Oliver usually gives every one of his rides a top chance and really puts them into the race. He again got the best out of Marstic, who went up to 58kg. from his win one week earlier and won in fine style. Marstic met with some support on Caulfield racetrack too, firming from $5.50 to $4.20 before the panicky bookmakers eased him out to $4.80.

Of course Damien Oliver's not a miracle worker. If punters want to take well under the odds about horses he rides then their money will be lost.

A case in point last Saturday was Regal Shot. He was sent out a very short priced $2.10 favourite in the 1100 metres Group 3 Weight For Age Bletchingly Stakes. Of course the racing media also played its part by hyping up the horse, such as some more useless "live from the track" information - "The horse has trained right on" but of course not questioning whether around $2.00 was a realistic price. We did not hear one person in the media say, "The horse has nowhere near a 50% chance of winning the race."

Damien Oliver put Regal Shot well into the race, perfectly ridden on the speed and hit the lead early in the straight. But Regal Shot is looking more and more like a 1000 metres' specialist as he weakened over the last 50 and finished fifth in the nine horse field.

We mentioned former leading Brisbane hoop Michael Pelling the other week. If you followed some of his rides last Saturday there were more hard luck stories. For example, Canadian Comet, from only barrier seven was trapped wide throughout. Would that have happened if Brisbane's Scott Seamer or Stethi Kathidis had the ride?

Matthew Cant, a three kilos claiming apprentice was certainly not too popular with punters after the "get out stakes" at Randwick. He was aboard the well supported favourite Kootoomootoo. In the home straight Kootoomootoo was on the rails behind the leaders and basically followed them home.

After the race stewards spoke to Matthew Cant about his persistence in trying to push his mount into a position between the two runners ahead of him when there was insufficient room.

Take short odds with an inexperienced apprentice riding and don't be surprised when things go awry.

Weight stops a train and a poor strike rate horse, too

The six year old gelding Consolidator only had four wins from 32 starts before Saturday's race. First up on July 14 he finished eleventh of 14 at Rosehill, beaten nearly eight lengths in a Listed race over 1400 metres.

For that effort he rose eight kilos in weight to 61.5kg. when he was entered in an 1800 metres restricted race at Randwick. I was quite surprised to see Consolidator who had to lug 61.5kg. start as $4.20 favourite. Try telling the horse there's nothing wrong with having to carry 61.5kg. because he's down in class!

Leading hoop Jim Cassidy settled him nicely next to the rails on the speed. However he was hard ridden in the straight and never looked like winning.

Talking about Jim Cassidy, it must be a while since he has had such a poor first up mount like Touch Of Sun in the last of the day, a 1300 metres Welter. The six year old gelding is a Listed race winner over 2400 metres so the 1300 first up was ideal. Maybe it was the track bias, but Touch Of Sun settled well back in the field and that is where he stayed. Jim Cassidy, one of the best jockeys around, is in heavy demand and surely not interested in rides like that.

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