10/8/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

No Excellerator - plods all the way

On July 17 three year old gelding Excellerator won a barrier trial at Rosehill. In that trial he defeated Lonhro who should have won first up 10 days later but for a poorly judged ride by Larry Cassidy.

When Excellerator resumed at Randwick from his spell of four months in a 3YO Group 2 set weights 1000 metres sprint last Saturday it seemed all he had to do was go around and win. On The Sportsman's front page in big, bold letters was splashed:
"Gai set to press the Excellerator".
(Gai refers to Gai Waterhouse, the well known trainer of Excellerator.)

Excellerator had come back "bigger and better than ever." Until the race. Excellerator was off the speed and plodded home for a well beaten fifth in the 10 horse field. The $1.90 starting price was big unders.

Every week we say it. Avoid short odds about horses resuming from a spell. Sure enough, every week punters ignore us and do their money and then wonder why. Taking under a horse's true winning chances means guaranteed long term losses. Excellerator never had a huge 55% chance of winning the race which was needed to justify his price of $1.90.

Dash For Cash - or dash for cover?

There was a similar story at Caulfield. In the 3YO Open over 1000 metres the very promising Dash For Cash was sent out the $2.50 favourite on resuming from a four months' spell. He had a top rider in Brett Prebble but also had to carry top weight 58kg.

At least Dash For Cash ran a bold race. He hit the finishing line well and was only beaten a little over a length. The winner? First starter Tully Dane.

Tully Dane had a leading jockey in Stephen Baster and only had to carry 53kg. From barrier one he fought hard to lead despite being pressured all the way. It was a very convincing win. He will get much better and is certainly a horse worth watching in the coming Spring Carnival.

This well bred Danehill colt out of the 1997 Group 1 New Zealand Sires Produce Stakes winner Good Faith was purchased for $625,000 at the New Zealand Premier Yearling Sale. You would think punters would take this as a warning that Dash For Cash just might not have a 40% chance of winning the race.

However probably many punters do not take any notice of that sort of information - it is not put in every formguide, which also does not help. Then again we all know many punters like to back short priced horses because it is very easy to do - in all honesty they do not expect to win at the punt and backing popular horses makes them one of the crowd.

They know if they lose they can sympathise with plenty of other punters who also lost on the horse. Blame the jockey, blame the track, blame anyone but themselves for backing a horse at unrealistically short odds.
You don't have to be one of those punters.

All successful punters take responsibility for their bets. They learn from their mistakes. No punter is successful right from the start. Successful punters once backed short priced tote favourites at odds way below their true winning chances. They accepted the responsibility for what they did. They didn't blame the jockey, track or anything else for making poor value, long term losing bets. They blamed themselves for backing those horses and learned from their mistakes.

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
Jockey watch
Trainer John Hawkes - yet again
And more...

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