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10/1/2009
edition
Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites
Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?
These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on
a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne as the results should be comparable there to Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide races on Saturdays over the long term.
Here are the results from Moonee Valley, Saturday night, 27th. December.
Moonee Valley
Track: Good 3
Rail: Out 2 metres
Penetrometer: 4.68
R1 $60,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Cascabel
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-11
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Peter Mertens
Trainer: Robbie Griffiths
R2 $60,000 Rst86. Handicap.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Niwot
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 2-11
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.15
Top fluctuation: $2.25
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes
R3 $60,000 Rst82. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Leica Ding
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 2400
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Jarrod Fry
Trainer: Darren Weir
R4 $100,000 2YO. Listed. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Exceedingly French
Days since last start: 12
Distance last start: 1004
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman
R5 $60,000 Rst82. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Crossthestart
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 1440
Result last start: 2-10
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
R6 $60,000 Rst82. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Secret Flyer
Days since last start: 53
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 4-13
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.90
Jockey: Logan McGill
Trainer: Mark Young
R7 $60,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Tempest Tost
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Logan McGill
Trainer: Gary White
R8 $60,000 Mares. Rst82. Handicap.
Distance: 1509 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Fifth Avenue Lady
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 5-10
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
Comments:
Two of the three winning favourites were winners at their previous start. There was an excellent training performance in R6 where Secret Flyer dropped back in distance from 1400 metres to 1200 metres after a break of 53 days and won. In R8 the favourite, Fifth Avenue Lady, ran seventh after finishing fifth at her previous start.
This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting horses first up from a spell
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 3/1/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 27/12/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 20/12/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 13/12/2008
The Trifecta Gold horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/1/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 27/12/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/12/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 13/12/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 13/12/2008
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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