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10/1/2009
edition
Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields
There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about
favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on
a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne,
Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details
of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example
if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer
odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than
they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate
on favourites in small fields? And so on.
Here are the horse racing results from Saturday, 3rd. January, 2009.
Randwick: Track Good
R1 $70,000 3YO. Rst80. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Villa Moura
Result: second
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: John O'Shea
Winner: Gold Water
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.10
Jockey: Daniel Ganderton
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
R4 $70,000 4YO and upward. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: McClintock
Result: first
Starting price: $2.35
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Mark de Montfort
Caulfield: Track Good
R1 $60,000 2YO Fillies. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Baby Corn
Result: second
Starting price: $2.00
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman
Winner: Be That As It May
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.90
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Hayes
R2 $60,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Brunello
Result: second
Starting price: $4.00
Jockey: Andrew Mallyon
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton
Winner: Swift Bay
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.20
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: Ross McDonald
R3 $60,000 Spec. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Whiskey Cruyff
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.30
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Noonan
Winner: Jennings
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.50
Jockey: Billy Egan
Trainer: Anne Yates
Eagle Farm:
Track Dead R1-R3, Slow R4-R6, Heavy R7-R8.
R2 $13,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1840 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Pentacity
Result: third
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Dean Tanti
Trainer: Bryan Guy
Winner: Rebounded
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Luke Rolls
Trainer: Pat Duff
R6 $13,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Brilliantes
Result: seventh
Starting price: $3.40
Jockey: Ryan Wiggins
Trainer: Robert Heathcote
Winner: Castagnola
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.20
Jockey: Ric McMahon
Trainer: Bryan Guy
Cheltenham: Track Good
R2 $25,500 3YO. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Lucky Fox
Result: sixth
Starting price: $3.30
Jockey: Scott Bailey
Trainer: Stuart Gower
Winner: Pioneer Prince
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.90
Jockey: Amy Herrmann
Trainer: Lisa Lefoe
This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting horses first up from a spell
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 3/1/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 27/12/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 20/12/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 13/12/2008
The Trifecta Gold horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/1/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 27/12/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/12/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 13/12/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 13/12/2008
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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