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9/8/2002 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

By the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 69kg. (70 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more fared last Saturday. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

No tables this week because:

There were 12 horses at Rosehill, Caulfield, Doomben and Victoria Park last Saturday handicapped at 59kg. or more. Every one of these horses had a claiming apprentice which reduced their weight to below 59kg.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Lonhro - huge win. Was it a value bet?
You're told to follow these formlines. Don't.
Trifecta betting tips.
Handicapping tips - weight and class
How important are barriers?
Money talks - Rosehill plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Race down the straight - Flemington farce

Punt to Win 2/8/2002
Punt to Win index


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