9/8/2002 edition

Lonhro is Back
Huge Win

What an outstanding win by Lonhro last Saturday at Rosehill in the Weight for Age Missile Stakes.

Darren Beadman settled the son of Octagonal midfield, took him four wide around the home turn to get a run, and spotting the leaders about four lengths at the top of the straight said "Go" and with quick turn of foot Lonhro hit the lead at the 200 and went away for a very soft win by nearly four lengths.

Lonhro, who has now won 10 of his 13 races, is now being compared to his champion sire Octagonal, with Darren Beadman, who rode Octagonal in many of his great wins, saying that if anything Lonhro could be more brilliant than Octagonal.

Top fluctuation bookmaker odds about Lonhro last Saturday was $1.70. (tote dividend was $1.60 on the three main totes.)

Was Lonhro value?

After such a commanding win it is very easy to say yes. But backing horses at $1.70 means you also need to win 59% of the time to just break even when those horses are backed.

But one thing is for sure. If bookmakers know in advance the money is coming for a "certainty" then the odds are kept below what the bookmakers consider its fair winning odds. They are not caught unawares by these horses.

Maybe having a look at the bookmaker markets in Lonhro's race will also be some guide.

At starting price the bookmakers' market was 111.11%.
At top fluctuation the bookmakers' market was a very low 102.64%.

That meant at top fluctuation there was no room for error by the bookmakers. If the bookmakers considered Lonhro an even money chance (50%) instead of $1.70 (58.82%), then that reduced the real top fluctuation market by 8.82% to 93.82% and meant some of the other runners they were laying could have offered real value.

But with a dominant $1.70 winner in a top fluctuation market of only 102.64% the odds were that Lonhro was real value. To state the obvious, if bookmakers thought he would have won so effortlessly, then they would not have offered $1.70 about the popular elect.

The big risk for punters is knowing which $1.70 horses to back and which ones to leave alone. Punters are not able to correctly discriminate between horses which should be odds on and those which should be in the black. That is why bookmakers win, even if they offer overs about some of these horses. 99% of punters are unable to get a high enough winning strike rate backing these selections to even break even.

Of course, bookmakers can on occasions get these prices wrong. That's how the smart punters beat them.

Our own view with these short priced commodities is that plenty are way under their true winning odds, while the odds available about the winners are not really worth taking. To make any worthwhile money you have to bet heavily and it leaves you open to losing a substantial amount of money when losing runs occur through bad luck, even when backing the correct odds on horses.

Real opportunities often exist to have a small win bet on something to beat them. You only need a very small strike rate to be in front. (Gullcatcher started at even shorter odds of $1.50 at Doomben last Saturday and finished second. We gave Double Dazzle, who won paying up to $23.90 as a High Flyer selection.)

This edition of Punt to Win:
Lonhro - huge win. Was it a value bet?
You're told to follow these formlines. Don't.
Trifecta betting tips.
Handicapping tips - weight and class
How important are barriers?
Money talks - Rosehill plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Race down the straight - Flemington farce
Punt to Win 2/8/2002
Punt to Win index

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