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9/1/2010
edition
Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites
Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?
These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on
a regular basis.
We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.
Here are the results from the Caulfield Boxing Day horse racing meeting held on Saturday, 26th. December, 2009.
Caulfield
Track: Good
Rail: Out 5 metres
Penetrometer: 5.14
R1 $70,000
2YO. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Zachary
Days since last start: First race start.
Distance last start: ---
Result last start: ---
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Peter Mertens
Trainer: Peter Snowden
R2 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Rating 72. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Pins On Ice
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
R3 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: At The Heads
Days since last start: 24
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
R4 $70,000
Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 11
Equal Favourite: Macedonian
Days since last start: 22
Distance last start: 2500
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Equal Favourite: Miss Lily Rose
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 2040
Result last start: 2-9
Result this start: 8th.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
R5 $70,000 Mares. Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Valentine Miss
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
R6 $100,000 Listed. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Here De Angels
Days since last start: 53
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-15
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
R7 $100,000
Listed. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1700 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Sadalbari
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1700
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Michael Kent
R8 $70,000 Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Dom Perion
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1440
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Dale Sutton
Comments:
A small loss day for punters backing favourites with three winners from the nine favourites. Steven Arnold won on two favourites and had rides on favourites in R2, R4, R5 and R6. Danny O'Brien was the trainer of three favourites, in R2, R3 and R4, with Pins On Ice winning in R2. All three winning favourites were placed at their previous start - with two seconds and a win.
This edition of Punt to Win:
What is a good horse racing betting race?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Improver horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 2/1/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 26/12/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 19/12/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 12/12/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 2/1/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/12/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 19/12/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/12/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 12/12/2009
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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