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9/1/2010
edition
Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields
There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about
favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on
a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne,
Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details
of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example
if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer
odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than
they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate
on favourites in small fields? And so on.
Here are the results from Saturday, 12th. December, 2009.
Flemington: Track Good.
R1 $70,000 2YO Fillies. Set weights and panalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Red Belly Black
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: David Hayes
R2 $70,000 3YO. Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Rain Shadow
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $1.55
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
Winner: Cabeza
Starting price: $10.00
Top fluctuation: $12.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $11.10
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
R3 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Gibraltar Moon
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.20
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Lee Freedman
Winner: Sincengarni
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.00
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
Eagle Farm: Track Good
R1 $45,000 2MW. Handicap.
Distance: 2106 metres
Number of runners: 7
Equal Favourite: Forbes
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Jim Byrne
Trainer: John Wallace
Equal Favourite: Never You Mind
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.60
Jockey: Michael Cahill
Trainer: Craig Martin
Morphettville: Track Good
R1 $26,500 3YO Fillies. 1MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: I'm Discreet
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $1.20
Top fluctuation: $1.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.20
Jockey: Libby Hopwood
Trainer: Richard Jolly
R2 $41,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2030 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Road Worker
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.30
Jockey: Adrian Patterson
Trainer: Roslyn Day
Winner: You Beautiful Doll
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.19
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: David Hayes
R4 $26,500 Rating 81. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Klitschko
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $1.80
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
Winner: Canali
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.60
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Stephen Brown
This edition of Punt to Win:
What is a good horse racing betting race?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Improver horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 2/1/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 26/12/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 19/12/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 12/12/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 2/1/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/12/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 19/12/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/12/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 12/12/2009
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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reserved.
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