Horse Racing Weight Handicapping and Betting Odds

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses are handicapped with 60kg. (61kg. with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

This table below shows how horses that carried 60kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a bookmaker starting price of $10.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We have eliminated any races where more than three horses carried at least 60kg. with a starting price of $10.00 or shorter. We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Rosehill - 1/9/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Nocturnelle	60kg.	1	1400	$2.40fav.	5/9
Pierro	60kg.	4	1200	$1.55fav.	1/6
Caulfield - 1/9/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Bloomingdale Miss	60kg.	4	1400	$4.00	1/7
Celebrity Girl	60kg.	10	1000	$5.00	5/11
Sneak A Peek	61kg.	2	1400	$6.00	8/13
Morphettville - 1/9/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Lord Of The Song	71kg.	2	3200	$2.30fav.	1/7
Warwick Farm - 25/8/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Monton	60.5kg.	5	1200	$7.00	6/9
Moonee Valley - 25/8/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Atomic Force	60kg.	6	1000	$4.00fav.	4/12
Morphettville - 25/8/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Our Freed Man	60.5kg.	9	1400	$10.00	1/10
Warwick Farm - 11/8/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Capital Commander	60kg.	2	1200	$3.20fav.	5/8
Flemington - 11/8/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Mulaazem	60kg.	2	1410	$1.65fav.	2/5
Morphettville - 11/8/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Gotta Take Care	70kg.	2	3500	$2.40fav.	0/6 - fell
Condelago	60.5kg.	10	1200	$10.00	7/10
Canterbury - 4/8/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Skytrain	62kg.	3	1250	$9.50	3/8
Moonee Valley - 4/8/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Eagle Falls	60kg.	5	1000	$9.00	6/9

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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	Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.