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8/9/2012
edition
Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields
There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about
favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring
favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and
Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.
Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details
of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example
if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer
odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than
they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate
on favourites in small fields? And so on.
Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 18th. August, 2012.
Rosehill: Track Good.
R1 $85,000 3YO &UP. Rating 90. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Stout Hearted
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $2.05
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Nathan Berry
Trainer: Chris Waller
R3 $125,000 3YO. San Domenico Stakes. Group 3. Handicap. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: All Too Hard
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.15
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes
Winner: Snitzerland
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Gerald Ryan
Caulfield: Track Heavy.
R1 $80,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Oak Heart
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $4.00
Jockey: Damian Lane
Trainer: Darren Weir
Winner: Rowland
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.30
Jockey: Jackie Beriman
Trainer: Robbie Laing
R3 $120,000 3YO. Colts and Geldings. Listed. Handicap. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Planet Voyage
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Winner: Psychic Mick
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.70
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: Daniel Clarken
R5 $120,000 Mares. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Freereturn
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $2.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Ben Melham
Trainer: Jason Warren
R8 $120,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Forty Thirty
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.60
Jockey: Damien Thornton
Trainer: Clinton McDonald
Winner: Streets Away
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Darren Weir
Doomben: Track Good.
R2 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Fire Up Fifi
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Ryan Hurdle
Trainer: Robert Heathcote
R5 $50,000 Rating 95. Handicap.
Distance: 2100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Saint Encosta
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.60
Jockey: Michael Cahill
Trainer: John P. Thompson
Winner: Racing Heart
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.80
Jockey: Anthony Allen
Trainer: Robert Heathcote
This edition of Punt to Win:
Melbourne Cup and Caulfield Cup horse racing betting odds and tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Horse Racing Trainer Multiple Acceptances free horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 1/9/2012 & 25/8/2012
Betting favourites in small fields: 18/8/2012
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 18/8/2012
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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